Even when equity markets are efficient, timing is everything. There will always be over-bought and over-sold stocks. Our goal is to find them and identify the catalysts that will trigger corrections to fair value, and communicate the opportunity to our clients in a timely manner.
We begin within a given industry or end market. Depending on the nature of the industry and the questions we are asking, we will speak with anywhere from 30 to 200 uncompensated contacts in North America, Latin America, Europe and the Far East. These are largely repeat contacts who over time have proven to be reliable in their opinions and insights. We ask about fundamental business drivers, including pricing, unit volumes, mix, promotional activity, inventories, imports, exports, foreign competition, new product successes, failures, SKU resets, raw materials costs and more.
Next, we map these results within a quantitative framework providing statistical distributions of responses to each question. We arrange these distributions by time and analyze for change. While this quantitative analysis is valuable, we also weigh anecdotal responses from our contacts as we gather market intelligence and search for catalysts.
Longbow Research publishes four different products on a frequent basis. Each is intended to serve a different set of customer needs.
Most surveys are conducted on a monthly or quarterly basis. Each report begins with a summary of take-aways followed by the survey details intended to provide our clients with a more textured account of our findings and investment implications. Survey reports are typically published within 1-2 days of the completion of the research work.
Our company notes tend to focus on the key value drivers as well as emerging points of interest that are identified with our survey work. As a result, we believe that Longbow Research company notes provide investors with a different perspective on a company's business. We move beyond the conference call topics and include additional analysis of emerging trends in pricing, market share, new product success/failure, retail resets, distributor inventories, etc. Our objective is to alert investors to these market moving developments before they are discussed by the companies on their quarterly conference calls. Often, these developments result in companies exceeding or falling short of consensus estimates and the ensuing re-pricing of the shares.
We published timely flash reports on key data points from widely-followed trade associations, but add value with commentary that ties in recent proprietary research insights, reactions from our channel contacts and investment thesis implications.
The Longbow Research Best Ideas List is a monthly publication which highlights our analysts’ best ideas at Longbow Research. These ideas are derived from Longbow’s proprietary research approach which employs over 100 end-market surveys and incorporates traditional securities analysis. The report identifies each analyst’s one or two “Best Ideas,” a brief investment thesis on each, a description of the supporting Longbow survey, and recent survey findings. Selections are made for the purpose of generating alpha on a 6- to 12-month view. Our analysts may remove or otherwise replace a Best Idea at any time. All such changes will be communicated to our clients when they occur.
To obtain a copy of our most recent Best Ideas List, please contact a Longbow sales representative.